The thing is, of course, that sometimes Book Three didn't turn out to be the really great one either. Trust and faith didn't always pay off then either. But of course we hear more about the great authors of the 40s/50s/60s who were finally recognised, than the possibly-great authors who turned out not to be and were promptly forgotten. There have been many more, 'Whatever happened to...?' novelists than, 'He never sold more than a thousand copies till...' novelists.

Emma

I wonder how it would be if (and of course this is an idealistic if) people who were passionate about writing were endowed with total endurance/persistence and had access to the very best teaching? (I know this reprises Terry's thread about good prose/talent). I suppose the odds in their favour of 'making it' would go up. And what if the authors who never quite write that second or third 'great' novel had the benefit of great teaching by, say, masters of the craft. Would the likelihood of them 'making' it go up?
Sx

One reason Three never gets written is because the debts/loneliness have become overwhelming and the author has to go and get a proper job/life, (though I tend to feel that all that does is sort the merely keen sheep from the truly persevering goats).

But another reason Three never gets written is that without the affirmation of a publishing contract it's incredibly hard to keep going. I think one of the functions of the Masters courses is to help you write One or Two, give you the affirmation that you are good, that there is merit in your work, and keep you going, as it were, till you do write something that lands that contract.

The really good Masters courses pretty much fulfil your criteria, I guess, Susie: you need to be really persistent to find the money and get on and survive the course, but some of the teaching is terrific. No teaching in the world can make someone with no talent into a great (in the strict aesthetic sense) writer, but it can certainly help you to make the best of whatever talent you've got.

Emma

Been away a few days so just got to this. A friend of mine has been doing her Masters in Professional Writing here in Cornwall. The novel was only one part of the whole - but she learned a lot about article writing and other facets of writing.
Yes, I guess it all comes down to perseverance in one form or another and the rocky path to publication (or not) certainly would sort out the sheep from the goats.
(It would be pretty baaaaaad to discover one is a sheep.)
Susiex