My instincts would be that publishers might want to play it safe and go for the equivalent of literary comfort food - books that are easy to consume in large amounts but ultimately not very good for the body and soul... If this is a natural reflection of people's buying habits, then the smaller, more selective publishers may well find times hard.

There was another thread somewhere on this site with a link to an external discussion/blog on this subject but I can't find it now.

S

The view of everyone I've asked is that books are relatively recession-proof: as people have said, they're seen as inexpensive entertainment compared to some of the other options.

The focus may shift, thought: there's already a comeback of the big, glizty 80s-type novel, by all accounts, and, yes, there's always a fear that publishers won't feel able to take a risk on an off-beat unknown (but has there ever been an era in modern publishing when we didn't grumble about that?).

The thing that's really going to do damage to the chances of new risky writing being taken on though, is the Olympics. Mainstream publishing has always tended to be cautious, and the really exciting writing often comes from the small literary independent publishers, who can only break even with Arts Council help. But Olympics is draining the CMS budget so desperately that hundreds of projects in the arts, including supporting innovative publishing, are suffering or being extinguished altogether. And that, of course, isn't just a reduction in numbers for the next year or two: publishing like that is the seedcorn of the future literary stars.

Emma

On the other hand:

http://www.thebookseller.co.uk/news/70111-credit-insurer-acts-on-borders-us.html

Emma

But isn't this probably because bookshops are generally losing out to Amazon and other on-line booksellers? Doesn't it reflect a change in selling patterns rather than a change in selling quantities?
Susiex

Well, I don't suppose it helps. But that's been happening for a while, but I've never heard of credit insurance being withdrawn.

Emma

I'm not sure that Borders' problems are down to books so much as bad business. I always think that, because they have so many things under one roof, they only have a mainstream selection. They seem to aim to sell a small range of several different things, books, magazines, music etc, rather than concentrating on being an outlet for books or music and adding a few things on around the outside of this.

I'd guess that they lose out to the shops like Waterstones and HMV/Zavvi which stock a much wider range of their core products and smaller ranges of other things which tie in.

S