Has anybody got any tangible examples of the rumoured economic downturn hitting publishing? Are fewer books being commissioned? Are publishers becoming less likely to back riskier themes or styles? Or are they going to wait to see how the economy plays out?

I'm curious as a quick whizz through recent posts suggests didn't reveal any headline posts on this subject but I'm a bit of a slacker on this site so if it has been discussed, please show me where!

S

I think it's a case of wait and see Sarah. A book usually takes a year or so to reach the bookshops, so you're talking this time next year, or even two year's hence, before you'll see a significant drop in the numbers of books being published - if any. Far more likely will be a wave of takeovers and consolidations (as with the banking industry), if publishers can't raise the necessary finance to publish new titles.


- NaomiM

<Added>

...Bloomsbury should be Ok, though.

I think it's 'wait and see' as well. There was some coverage in the Bookseller, everyone seemed broadly optimistic - they asked a few booksellers and customers how they felt, and they were all saying that books would continue to be popular because people see them as worth the money; also people will stay in and read a book rather than go out for a meal or drinks, as it's cheaper. That might be a bit simplistic though.

Just been out with a friend who used to be in the City, and her view was the same - that books are relatively recession-proof, and that anyone who's writing a novel now, and therefore not trying to sell it for a while, shouldn't worry too much: by this time next year, things may be tighter but we'll know much more where we are.

Emma

Problems in the industry are more likely to be with publishers who are already carrying a lot of debt and can't refinance when they need to, rather than a drop in the volume of sales (although those producing the pretty coffee table-type books may have a harder time of it.)

This is more or less as I thought. I think history has shown that escapism does well in gloomy times - the musicals in the Thirties spring to mind. I suppose the more interesting question might be whether the types of books that sell changes at all - but that might not be guessable at this stage.

S

I have a friend who is an editor of children's fiction, and she said much the same thing to me recently - that the publishing industry is less likely than most to be hit hard by the recession. Apparently an email went round at her (large) company, reassuring them of this, so it does seem to be a widely-held view.

The collective wisdom seems to be that people will still buy books and that crime and women's fiction are two genres that are particularly robust.
HB x

Nothing to contribute - except, LOVE the title of the thread, Sarah!

Rosy

Yes, very witty!

Sorry, I really should have apologised for it!

crime and women's fiction are two genres that are particularly robust

Funnily enough, that was the conclusions I was drawing. Agatha Christie and the 'hard boiled' crime fiction writers rose to prominence in the thirties. I've just remembered writing an essay for my degree once about crime books being popular in times of economic downturn. I think I suggested that the desire for detective fiction could be linked to the desire for answers in one's life. Or something along those lines - this was twenty years ago!

And on women's fiction, all I could think of from the eighties was how huge Jackie Collins was. This was pre-Bridget Jones!

S

I saw a section of a TV interview with Richard Attenborough recently, in which he suggested that the arts generally tend to prosper, rather than falter, in times of economic recession - partly perhaps because people need cheering up & maybe also because buying a book or watching a local theatre production represents better value for money than eating out at an expensive restaurant or going to a glitzy nightclub (or doing any one of the useless, self-indulgent things people do when they've got money to burn).

I'm sure it'll be fine. Might even be a good thing in many ways.

I went to a workshop recently about how to get published run by the editor of the Writers' and Artists' Yearbook and she seemed confident that books were fairly recession-proof.

Also, I just heard that sales of computer games have doubled recently because people are choosing to stay in rather than going out. If computer games, which are relatively expensive, are selling well, then that bodes well for books.

I am still concerned, however, that agents (and publishers) may be less willing to take on new writers. The industry may (and this is only my own opinion) focus more on proven writers.

The recent WW interview with agent Laura Longrigg of MBA:

How is the credit crunch affecting the publishing climate- what can writers do to maximise their chances? I don’t know – it’s frightening, obviously, but too soon to say. The feeling at Frankfurt was that things would stay much the same until Christmas and then sales would go down and publishers would really be much more careful about spending money on new books.

Worrying.
Susiex

As a bit of an insider I have seen publishers becoming more cautious than usual (and that’s saying something!). The big boys have their book planned years in advance and they will not react to the market for another six months or so. However, many of the smaller publishers have closed their books to new submission and are focussing on improving the sales of the books they already have in print.

So not great for writers.

Gary at http://www.bubblecow.co.uk